Market Opinion
July 10, 2010
[Stocks]
SHORT TERM: (3 days - 3 weeks) - I will not
be doing short term opinions, unless demand should
warrant it.
MEDIUM TERM: (1 month - 5 months) - Neutral/Buy -
On an intermediate basis, the technical condition of
the market has changed. I am now expecting a rally
for a couple of months. I would suggest a risk
portion of your portfolio in indexes, or the
equivalent.
LONG TERM: (More than 6 months) - Sell -
Long term, nothing has changed. It will soon be
apparent to everyone that we're sliding back into
recession. 3rd quarter GDP will likely be negative
and that trend will last for months.
[Bonds]
LONG TERM: - Sell - I'm inclined to say,
"Cover all shorts on Munis". But I can't.
There is just not enough recognition, in the bond
market, of the coming problems. I don't think there
are bailouts in store for Munis. That means they have
a lot further to fall.
[Gold]
LONG TERM: - Sell - Gold sentiment seems to
have hit an extreme. A fast and furious drop is
possible. Fundamentally: (1)inflation is not a
problem, deflation is the problem, (2)the dollar is
not crashing.
[Real Estate]
LONG TERM: - Buy - Most real estate has not
hit bottom. But your best deals come long before the
actual bottom is reached. The whole thing has me
excited. I have my ear to the ground, searching for
deals. Believe me, they're out there. Can you
recognize one? If you need help, call me!
[Antiques/Collectibles]
LONG TERM: - Buy - This asset class will
always be very rewarding for those in-the-know. As
long as world economies depend in fiat
currencies this baby is solid. But, you have to
do your homework. Smart investors are trend
followers. There are no PEs to get out of
whack, so prices can go to the moon. Dont be
afraid to buy inexpensive items, but always go for
quality and a theme.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is only for informational and
educational purposes and does not represent a
proposal for buying or selling stocks, bonds, gold,
futures contracts, or investment grade assets of any
kind. BCS, Inc. is not in the business of selling
Market Advice.