Market Opinion
March 1, 2010
[Stocks]
SHORT TERM: (3 days - 3 weeks) - I will not
be doing short term opinions, unless demand should
warrant it.
MEDIUM TERM: (1 month - 5 months) - Sell -
Since my last update, we have seen some market
action. Although, not a lot. It appears that we
traced out an e-wave (a) or (1) and are probably
finishing the (b) or (2). The next leg down should be
a doozy. Stay tuned!
LONG TERM: (More than 6 months) - Sell -
Some people might complain that I've been on a sell
signal for a long time without the market going down.
But, if you were managing a portfolio of stock, you
would be grateful, because many of those individual
issues are selling for less than they did 6 months
ago. We have witnessed a very long sideways
consolidation. My best guess is that this level, on
the indexes, won't be seen for years. As of this
writing, long term investors will simply want to stay
on the sidelines.
[Bonds]
LONG TERM: - Sell - Treasuries are exactly
where they were at last writing. The big story
continues to be the deterioration in Municipal and
State budgets. As I've been saying, do your homework,
it's time to take a serious look at shorting Munis.
Many states, counties, and cities are on the verge of
collapse. Unless the federal government bails them
out, their debt will be worthless. Some of the states
in the worst condition are California, New Jersey,
Oregon, North Carolina, Michigan, Kentucky, and Ohio.
Some of the cities in the worst condition are
Detroit, New York City, Houston, Jacksonville,
Cambridge, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Washington
D.C. This is only a short list.
[Gold]
LONG TERM: - Sell - I continue to believe
that gold was about to collapse. My reasons are
simple: 1)inflation is not a problem, deflation is
the problem, 2)the dollar is not crashing as the
media keeps telling you. In fact, it is substantially
higher than it was last year. 3)gold is the only
commodity that has recently rallied, meaning it is in
it's own bubble. Actually, some commodities, such as
gas, are near record lows. Nimble traders should
short the XAU, or it's components, on rallies.
[Real Estate]
LONG TERM: - Buy - Most real estate has not
hit bottom. But your best deals come long before the
actual bottom is reached. The whole thing has me
excited. I have my ear to the ground, searching for
deals. Believe me, they're out there. Can you
recognize one? If you need help, call me!
[Antiques/Collectibles]
LONG TERM: - Buy - This asset class will
always be very rewarding for those in-the-know. As
long as world economies depend in fiat
currencies this baby is solid. But, you have to
do your homework. Smart investors are trend
followers. There are no PEs to get out of
whack, so prices can go to the moon. Dont be
afraid to buy inexpensive items, but always go for
quality and a theme.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is only for informational and
educational purposes and does not represent a
proposal for buying or selling stocks, bonds, gold,
futures contracts, or investment grade assets of any
kind. BCS, Inc. is not in the business of selling
Market Advice.